Why Early Assessments of Limited Military Operations Exhibit an elevated risk of analytical distortion.
Julio Enrique PALACIO
(Lieutenant Colonel, Joint Command of the Armed Forces, Argentina)
Copyright: @ 2026 Research Institute for European and American Studies (www.rieas.gr) Publication date: 11 January 2026
Note: The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of the Research Institute for European and American Studies.
Introduction
The U.S. military operation in Venezuela reported on January 3, 2026 serves as a contemporary illustrative case of a timeless problem: contradictory judgments issued within 72 hours. For some, it was a “brilliant tactical success”; for others, a “predictable strategic failure.”¹ This phenomenon is not new. Limited military operations display a recurring pattern: categorical strategic judgments issued within days are later refuted or substantially qualified.² This study examines why such assessments exhibit an elevated risk of analytical distortion and how Intelligence can mitigate the problem... Read more