isr96By Glen Segell

(Professor at the University of Cambridge, and Visiting Professor and Research Fellow in the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State, South Africa. He is also Research Fellow at the Ezri Center for Iran & Gulf States Research, University of Haifa, Israel, and Editor of The Middle East Tracker and The London Security Policy Study. He is a Member of the Board of Directors of the Western Galilee College and serves as an Executive Advisory Board Member of the International Political Studies Association Research Committee on Armed Forces and Society. He holds the rank of Brigadier-General (Reserves) and is an expert for NATO STO)

Copyright: @ 2023 Research Institute for European and American Studies ( Publication date: 11 October 2023

Note: The article reflects the opinion of the author and not necessarily the views of the Research Institute for European and American Studies


One of the biggest dilemmas facing any army in the defense of a sovereign state is the difference between forecasting and predication. Prediction involves estimating an outcome with a high level of certainty, usually based on historical data and statistical modeling. Forecasting involves projecting future developments but with a certain level of uncertainty due to external factors that may impact the outcome. It is like the difference between climate and weather.... Read more

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