Dr. George Vardangalos
(Electrical and Computer Engineer, Independent IT &
...Political chaos is also on the horizon with the latest voted measures rupturing the ruling Pasok party as never before...
...One way or another, the present political system is going to collapse in the following months, though it seems the corrupted political ruling elite won’t be affected so much.
Τhe Greek elections of May 6 confirmed, with no doubt, the above predictions written some months ago. The election results were already “known”, more or less , by Europeans and other players that participate in this case study/experiment against Greece started on May 2010. The only thing that was less probable for them was the extent of collapse, regarding the two political ruling parties during the last 4 decades. For a very few votes, some thousands ones, the coalition government wasn’t formed, as they had planned. But the part of financial elite, which wanted Greece out of the Euro-zone since March 2009 , is not “prepared” to risk forcing Greece to exit the Euro-zone before the US elections in autumn. The plan was this exit to be an “alternative” to take place in 2013-2014, after the seizure of the largest valuable part of Greece’s public wealth. In any case, the main conclusion of these elections is the “transformation” of Troika’s last version MOU into a worthless paper.
The fake dilemma: Euro or New Drachma?
After a week of meetings among the political party leaders that entered parliament and President of Greek Republic, a coalition government was not formed at last. After talks collapse, as a result, new elections were decided to be held on June 17. Via the mass media Greece's European lenders are warning that any attempt by Athens to cut loose of its strict spending obligations would spell an end to the billions of euros in bailout funds and, moreover, Greece would be likely forced to exit the euro-zone.
Never before in a nation’s elections there was such a bombardment of a ‘dilemma’ (euro or drachma?) in order to contemplate who to vote for. But is this dilemma real for the majority of Greek people now?
In fact, it isn’t. The financial and social conditions that exist in Greece since last autumn “translate” this dilemma in the following: “Greeks, would you implement the troika’s austerity measures, that will be stricter as time passes because of their failure, in order to have a “slow death”? ; or will you exit now the euro-zone and you will have a “sudden death” ? (...because your country is not prepared properly to stand up to the consequences of this exit)
This dilemma is not working and will not work if lenders raise it too much via mass media. The previous elections should have taught them so. On the contrary, this dilemma may “force” Greek people to massively vote the opposite that lenders expect. And then, they will feel the real great surprise of the next elections results.
In addition, there are two totally different “sides” of the Greek society that have no fear against the prospect of new drachma. The one side is the part of the corrupted political and financial elite which have been transferring their deposits/financial assets abroad since 2009 and after the returning of drachma they will have the purchase power to buy the wealth of Greece in a bankruptcy cost, as it has been already mentioned .
The other side consists of the 1,5 million unemployed Greek people, the hundreds of thousands of employed and underemployed having wages less than 400-500 euro per month (after taxes), the majority of the depositors in Greek banks that have very few money in them because they are poor . They are so angry, they don’t care if Greece returns to drachma because they feel they have nothing more to lose, so such a dilemma by the lenders to them may have the opposite result than they expect.
The financial and social conditions in Greece are getting more depressionary, especially after last January. Latest data from Greek Statistical Authority is: In Q1 2012 Greek economy shrinks 6.2% ; unemployment rate at 21,7% on February 2012 ; the active working force is 3870000 people, the non-active working force is almost 4300000 people; 500.000 jobs have been destroyed in 2 years; the projection of unemployment rate in private sector is estimated about 35%. These levels of unemployment are near levels which propelled Nazis to power in Germany .
On the contrary, according to the spring forecasts from the Commission, GDP would shrink by 4.7% this year and would be flat in 2013, and unemployment would be also expected to rise further to an average 19.7% rate, adding one more failed report in the chain of the numerous failed ones published by troika during the last 2 years .
Greece is not responsible for this global debt crisis. This global debt crisis was the result of a procedure started after the .com crash in 2000 and led to the bankruptcy of the global banking system in 2007 . Since then, the financial elite in cooperation with the political one are trying to move this debt from banks to taxpayers. In this way, we have the “transformation” of banking debt crisis into a public debt crisis. Greece, as one of the weakest parts of the Eurozone, was the first victim of this “transformation”.
But, in fact, this global debt crisis started in 2007 accelerated the global power shift from west to east, and especially to the so-called “Eurasian” territory. This global power shift is taking place step by step since the early 1990s. The nature and dynamics of globalization are in the process of being transformed by underlying pressures that are just not bursting to the surface for the time being, but if someone looks carefully at parts of the real game played in Greece then the parallel geopolitical shift is obvious .
In this geopolitical shift, Europe, the Mediterranean countries, the Middle East are going to play an important role because of their location. Countries that are “far away” from Europe and the Mediterranean Sea have a disadvantage in their initial “placement” in this geopolitical game.
Greece has a very important role in this geopolitical shift. On the one hand, Greece is the “traditional” eastern gate to Europe; on the other hand, Greece has a specific location in the Mediterranean Sea and good relations and contacts with countries of the Middle East. This very important role of Greece in the new geopolitical shift has been noted before and the “entrance” of IMF in the Eurozone was the “Trojan Horse” of the representatives of the dollar and sterling zone.
So, in the name of the Greek public debt crisis 2 blocks have been formed in the global mass media:
a) the “anti-memorandum” block, supported by the representatives of the dollar and sterling zone, that say since May 2010 Greece should leave euro
b) the “in-favor-of memorandum” block, supported by Germany and EU, that say in the same period Greece should stay in the Eurozone at any cost.
But the interests of both blocks have nothing to do, at first, with the real interests of Greece in this crucial period. All of the above players during these 2 years know that the austerity measures of memorandum would give no solution to the problems of Greece. That will be a pretext, if some day they’ll decide to throw Greece out of the Eurozone. The only results “achieved” till now are the destruction of the middle class, the pauperization of large proportion of the Greek population and general disintegration of the Greek society. In addition, it is obvious that Greece is becoming a country of the new rising global feudalism .
For the above reasons, now there should be a critical political mass in Greece that understands the big shifts of the tectonic plates of globalization and the new possible future geopolitical role of the country. This critical political mass/coalition must re-examine old alliances, create new ones where possible and start negotiating new country’s geopolitical role.
Greece should start talks with Germany and EU for negotiating an immediate Marshall-Plan-style package if they really want to keep Greece within the euro zone. The financial and social destruction happening in Greece since last January has not yet appeared as data in their reports. When this data appears, maybe, it is too late. That also means that IMF-type austerity can no longer be implemented.
Greece should also start talks with the Dollar Zone. There should be negotiations for the provision of a “safety-net”, if Greece finally exits the Eurozone. In addition, negotiations should be concentrated on the new country’s role in the Mediterranean Sea, in the Middle East, in the “Eurasian” territory.
Both Eurozone and Dollar zone should prevent immediately Greece’s collapse and should start such moves before the elections in June. It is for their interest too. In fact, the consequences of Greece’s exit out of the Eurozone have not been examined in full extent (or they have been examined in secret reports). Actions should be taken at once in Eurozone, because a possible triggering of a real catastrophic domino effect is close to burst .
A new Yalta-like conference is running in different ways around Greece during the last years. Greece must have the chance to negotiate its new placement in the 21th century. That’s why a critical political mass/coalition is needed for this project. If it appears at last, I hope so, another necessary project to run is the punishment of the corrupted political and financial elite that brought Greece to bankruptcy, in fact many years before 2010.
 After the last EU summit: Greece’s “Yeltsin-like” era ante portas, RIEAS, December 2011, http://rieas.gr/research-areas/editorial/1655-after-the-last-eu-summit-greeces-yeltsin-like-era-ante-portas.html
 Greek elections: Be afraid, be very afraid, http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/05/03/986401/greek-elections-be-afraid-be-very-afraid/
 Banks prepare for the return of the drachma, http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/11/us-banks-drachma-idUSBRE84A0DC20120511
 Greece on the brink of depression and the myths accompanying the EU-IMF “rescue” plan, RIEAS, January 2011, http://rieas.gr/images/vard1.pdf
 Deposits of Greeks in banks: the majority of them has a banking account of 100 euros http://www.protothema.gr/economy/article/?aid=196271 (in Greek)
 Greek economy shrinks 6.2% in Q1, http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/05/15/greek-economy-shrinks-6-2-in-q1/
 Greek Unemployment Rate Hits Record 21.7 Percent Amid Political Turmoil, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/10/greek-unemployment-rate_n_1505392.html
 Neo-Nazis Will Have Seats In The Greek Parliament, And This Famous Chart Is Proving Apt Once Again, http://www.businessinsider.com/neo-nazi-golden-dawn-party-to-garner-seats-in-the-greek-parliament-2012-5#ixzz1v7wbKstT
 European Commission: Greece GDP Shrinks 4.7%, http://greece.greekreporter.com/2012/05/11/european-commission-greece-gdp-shrinks-4-7/
 The results of the troika’s “rescue plan” implementation in Greece and the global debt crisis, RIEAS, August 2011, http://www.rieas.gr/images/vardagalos.pdf
 Clyde Prestowitz: Waiting for the global economic tsunami, http://prestowitz.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/03/01/2011_waiting_for_the_global_economic_tsunami
 Brian P. Klein: The Rise of Global Feudalism, http://the-diplomat.com/2012/04/07/the-rise-of-global-feudalism/
 Santander, BBVA among Spanish Banks Downgraded by Moody’s, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/santander-among-16-spanish-banks-cut-by-moody-s-on-economy.html