Nikolas Stylianou
(RIEAS Research Associate, Security Analyst)
Copyright: www.rieas.gr
The incident on the Mavi Marmara on the 31st of May introduced a new era in Turkish – Israeli bilateral relations and many analysts and diplomats argue that this crisis between the former strategic allies has come to indicate that their political and geostrategic agenda, especially regarding the Middle East radically differs, especially after AKP, came to power in 2003. The current article seeks to address the role of Cyprus in regards to the rapid developments in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East and what strategies it should pursue in order to enhance its position in the region.
It is a fact that over the past years and especially after the Erdogan’s AKP rise to power, that several analysts and think tanks in the West have argued that there has been a significant turn in Turkey’s political agenda. Except for its support for the Palestinians and Iran’s nuclear aspirations, Turkey invigorated its relations with pariah-states of the international system and supporters of international terrorism, like Syria and Sudan.
In the heart of these geopolitical changes in Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East, Greece and Cyprus are expected to assess the new realities in the region and act accordingly. Especially Cyprus, which has been trapped in a strategic deadlock for almost 40 years now, having its 37 per cent of its territory illegally occupied by the Turkish army after the 1974 military invasion, should pursue the strengthening of its ties with the state of Israel. The close cooperation between Cyprus, Greece and Israel is desirable by all of the afore-mentioned countries as one can presume from the recent visit of the Israeli prime-minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Athens, as well as the strategically correct move by the president of Cyprus Demetris Christofias not to allow the ships of the Gaza flotilla to use Cyprus’ ports. Furthermore, the Greek and Israeli lobbies in the United States recently expressed the desire to strengthen their cooperation in regards to issues of mutual interest. Several other developments indicate the betterment Greek-Israeli relations, which accrued from the significant turn in Turkey’s foreign policy.
Diplomatic circles from the Cypriot Ministry of Foreign Affairs see the geopolitical changes in our region as a historical opportunity for Cyprus to disengage from the strategic deadlock it has been for almost 40 years now. The strengthening of Cypriot-Israeli relations will be used as leverage to the Turkish aggressiveness against Cyprus and enhance the latter’s position in the international system.
The governments of Cyprus have always supported the Palestinian cause for the creation of an independent Palestinian state. The Palestinian struggle for an independent state has always been paralleled with the Cypriot cause for liberation from the Turkish army. Nevertheless, if someone looks better at things, reality is that the unconditional support for the Palestinian cause has not benefited Cyprus in any way. It is time for Cypriot decision-makers to understand that the reality of international politics dictates careful assessment of politico-military developments and the contract of strategic alliances with states that share mutual interests. In this context, the non-official participation of Cyprus in the Gaza flotilla was a strategically correct movement.
Governments of Cyprus have diachronically failed to follow up with the changing security environment of the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. The emergence of asymmetric threats like Islamic extremism and piracy, as well as the nuclear aspirations of rogue regimes like Syria and Iran dominate the agenda of the West. In this changing security environment Cyprus and Greece can play an important role. In 1993, the two countries introduced the Joint Defense Doctrine, a strategic military alliance that has unfortunately fallen into desuetude in the past decade. The Joint Defense Doctrine was the only important deterrence strategy against Turkish aggressiveness and expansionary policy against Greece and Cyprus. Recent developments in the region dictate the immediate reconstitution of the JDD and the broadening of its strategic context by including counter-piracy and counter-terrorism operations, in close cooperation with Israel and NATO. In Middle East’s fragile peace and fluid security environment, with an unpredictable and controversial Turkey’s foreign policy, Greece and Cyprus can contribute to the security of the region.
The Turkish and Israeli lobbies in the United States have always been closely associated. Their actions were carefully co-ordinated on issues of mutual interest. It is popularly known that the political system of the United States allow for pressure groups like lobbies to play a significant role in decision-making process. Especially in regards to the Israeli lobby, it is considered to be the most influential amongst pressure groups in the United States. Especially after the controversial incident on the Mavi Marmara, Greek, Cypriot and Israeli lobbies expressed strong willingness and determination to enhance their cooperation and strengthen their ties. This development is extremely important while there can be mutual benefit, not only in the promotion of the political agendas of Cyprus and Greece, but on issues on economic co-operation as well.