Copyright: Pinhas Inbari on line
Note: RIEAS received this article from Pinhas Inbari.
This does not mean that I did not follow the news, and I was especially attracted to the Syrian-Lebanese situation and found important traces of Saudi's global policies, that we can find also traces in Afghanistan- Pakistan in the piece that I sent you last night. The bottom line is that – as I sense it – the Saudis are determined to mobilize again the Jihadist groups against Iran, Syria and Russia and as a result to urge the USA to attack Iran. I feel here, especially in the case of Mughanniya's assassination in Damascus that partially, in some domains, like in Lebanon and Syria, Israel is partner to the Saudis.
We don't know the details of what happened in Damascus but as far as I noticed on the internet the common knowledge is that it was a Jihadi suicide bomber. There were speculations whether he arrived from Iraq or Lebanon. It does not matter much but I believe that he came from Lebanon as tensions developed around Tripoli where the Syrian army is already deployed ready to enter Lebanon. What happened in Tripoli must be a lesson to Syria not to ride the tiger's back. They were the first to mobilize the Salafist fervor there to recruit Jihadist to Iraq, but down the road they turned against them with major help from the Saudis who are now believed to have control on most of those groups and they directed them against the quiet community of the Alawites to provoke the Alawite elite sector in Syria and start communal feuds in Syria itself.
In Afghanistan- Pakistan area we can perceive the global dimension- Afghanistan, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia are now coordinating new policy of re-engaging Taliban to form a major Sunni fist directed against Shiite Iran and its ally -- infidel Russia. It reminds me of the lecture of the Russian scholar in the anti terror conference in Hertzliya I sent you a while ago.
I think that the Saudis began to operate on this line after the Baker-Hamilton report that suggested that the USA be re-engaged with Iran and Syria as the major axis to rely on in the future as the rising powers in the ME. As far as the Saudis were concerned it was win-lose situation and in order to remove Syria as an important future pillar to USA in the ME – shaking the regime was necessary, and the main tool the Saudis have is the global Salafist movements.
In order to indeed achieve this goal the Saudis must now to help in eliminating Bin Laden for obvious reasons: to shift the focus of the Jihadist from the USA towards Russia and the Shi'a, and free Taliban to return to the local Afghan politics.
There is a direct European angle in the Tripoli situation- first 6 French citizens were seized in Nahr al-Bared camp among the Salafists and the dangerous Salafist preacher that was deported from England, Omar Bakri, as far as is known, is now located in Tripoli and can direct them towards Europe as well.