ASIAN STUDIES

(Why Indonesia and Japan are pivotal in Asia)

Anis H. Bajrektarevic
( Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member & Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies, Austria)

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On the eastern, ascendant flank of Eurasian continent, the Chinese vertigo economy is overheated and too-well integrated in the petrodollar system. Beijing, presently, cannot contemplate or afford to allocate any resources in a search for an alternative. (The Sino economy is low-wage- and labor intensive- centered. Chinese revenues are heavily dependent on exports and Chinese reserves are predominantly a mix of the USD and US Treasury bonds.) To sustain itself as a single socio-political and formidably performing economic entity, the People’s Republic requires more energy and less external dependency. Domestically, the demographic-migratory pressures are huge, regional demands are high, and expectations are brewing. Considering its best external energy dependency equalizer (and inner cohesion solidifier), China seems to be turning to its military upgrade rather than towards the resolute alternative energy/Green Tech investments – as it has no time, plan and resources to do both at once. Inattentive of a broader picture, Beijing (probably falsely) believes that lasting containment, especially in the South China Sea, is unbearable, and that – at the same time – fossil-fuels are available (e.g., in Africa and the Gulf), and even cheaper with the help of warships.

Keshav mazumdar
(Certified Master Antiterrorism Specialist & RIEAS Member of International Advisory Board)

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Our country’s decision makers- should receive unbiased, non-parochial, all-source intelligence threat estimates based upon need to know basis. But that is lacking. Today we have the IB, Directorate General of Security, the RAW, Directorate General Of MI, Air Intelligence, Naval Intelligence, the Defense Intelligence Agency and the National Technical Research Agency. Little coordination exists between them leading to poor information sharing, continuity loss, and inadequate threat analysis/estimate. Compartmentalization by the agencies further fortify these difficulties.

Anis H. Bajrektarevic
(Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member & Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies, Austria)

Copyright: Anis H. Bajrektarevic on line

Note: Based on the public lecture “Asia – Pacific: The Hydrocarbon Status Quo and Climate Change”, Chulalongkorn University, Mahachulalongkorn/MEA Think-Tank; Thailand, Bangkok 04 OCT 2011.

The unrest in the Arab world, which has continued for over a year now, implies one important conclusion beyond any ongoing regional struggle for democracy: It is a reflection about the globally important technological, even more about a crucial geopolitical breakthrough – an escape from the logics of the hydrocarbon status quo, which – after Copenhagen 2009 – failed again in Durban 2011.... Read more 

Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva
(RIEAS Senior Analyst & Eurasian Liaison)

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As it stands today the nuclear situation in Iran is still not crystal clear. There isn’t a clearly mapped transparent report of the nuclear sites of Iran.  But that’s not because intelligence forces are hiding the information from international public eyes, nor because they do not have complete intelligence on Iran’s Nuclear Program. The issue is that even all the existing and so far declared nuclear achievements of Iran are covert.  Which might make it difficult for forces to pin point the sites before bombing. So one of the obstacles is that bombing might bring major civilian loses. 

CHENG, Yu-Chin
(Lecturer, Institute of Political Science, Charles Univesrity in Prague, Director of European Office for Defense Technology Monthly Taipei, Taiwan)

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Introduction

The North Korean official media mouthpiece confirmed that the North Korean General  Kim Jong-II died on 18th December 2011, and this sudden news rocked the world politics. Except China, the members of the Six-Party Talk and Japan had nothing about his death, and the intelligence chiefs were under the criticis from their own parliaments and the press. Due to no early-warning intelligence, more and more people criticised the worse effectiveness of the intelligence services. Unlike abovementioned countries, the EU memeber states suffers less complaints and critics, but it cannot be interpreted that the EU people underestimate the Korean Peninsula Situation, but the EU manages this nuclear-like issue very carefuly. ... Read more

By Alexis Giannoulis
(RIEAS Research Associate & Independent Analyst)

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In 24 September 2011 the world witnessed the end of the debate about who will be running for (and most certainly become) the next Russian president at the elections of 2012. The plan was revealed on the 24th of September at the annual conference of United Russia party and this plan shocked a good portion of international and Russian political analysts and experts. However and rather astonishingly, a large amount of respected international media have welcomed this arrangement as an orderly ‘swap’ of the two most important posts in Russian politics, the one of the president and the one of the prime minister (PM). For example, a FT article of September 22 argued that the uncertainty surrounding the 2012 elections has “left Russia paralysed” . Washington had also claimed that whoever becomes the next Russian President the “reset” of US-Russian relations would continue  without, in essence officially commenting on the swap.... Read more