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Nikolas Stylianou
(RIEAS Research Associate and Security Analyst, PhD Candidate in Security and Intelligence Studies at Newcastle University, UK)

Copyright:
www.rieas.gr

Few days have passed since the terrorist attack in Boston, carried out by Dzhokhar Tsarnaev, 19, and his brother Tamerlan Tsarnaev, 26. This provides sufficient time to record some introductory observations and to extract some preliminary lessons learned. It is absolutely quintessential that, in the aftermath of a crisis, the security and intelligence apparatus of a state commences the procedure with an aim to assess what has been learned, what went wrong and what needs to be avoided in the future.

Soeren Kern
(Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute.He is also Senior Fellow for European Politics at the Madrid-based Grupo de Estudios Estratégicos / Strategic Studies Group) 

Copyright: http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org


"I ended up running for my life, barefoot and handcuffed, while British jihadists -- young men with south London accents -- shot to kill.  And not a Syrian in sight. This wasn't what I had expected." — John Cantlie, British photographer…. Read more

 

Rhodri Jeffreys-Jones (1)
(Emeritus Professor of History, University of Edinburgh, UK)

Copyright:
www.rieas.gr

We are in the grip of a global economic crisis. Like crises in the past, it threatens to drive us apart, with nations struggling to survive rather than cooperate. We have only to remember the 1930s to see how grim the prospects could be. Desperate politicians then erected trade barriers, extreme nationalism took hold, and in 1939 a second world war broke out...... Read more

Copyright: http://www.social-europe.eu

There was a very interesting debate on Channel 4 News in the UK about the repercussions of austerity in Europe and the UK. Paul Krugman, Guy Verhofstadt and Matthew Hancock took part. The result: austerity does not work and the UK government is more and more desperate in its attempt to justify its failing policies…
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Ilias Papadopoulos
(Security Analyst, DefenceGreece.com)

Copyright: www.DefenceGreece.com


The Strategic “Orthodoxy”-Clausewitzian Thought

In order to make any conclusions in the essence of war, we must start from the basics, which are Prussian military scholar Carl von Clausewitz. According to him the essence of war comprises from three ingredients, each of which is present in every confrontation, but in different doses.  Those ingredients are i) hatred/violence, ii) chance, and iii) subjugation of the military to political goals. Each of these facets of war corresponds to a particular element of the society that fights. Hatred mainly regards the wider civilian population of the country at war, and its will to continue the fight. Chance regards the country’s military forces, where a small shift of luck can mean the difference between victory and defeat, eg a rainfall that cancels a breakthrough to the enemy lines. Political domination exclusively regards the country’s political elite.....  Read more  

Brian Merchant
(Freelancer, focuses his research on political analysis, he contributes articles to the TreeHugger.com, and the Huffington Post)

What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible, justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk to fight back are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any of the above. It’s hunger, plain and simple. If there’s a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it’s food becoming too scarce or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in Cambridge, and it makes sense.....  Read more

Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva
(RIEAS Senior Advisor & Eurasian Liaison)

Copyrights: www.rieas.gr


The more followers you have, the stronger is their belief in you. The more believers you have, the greater your chances of getting elected. With both you can rule the nation. The difference between the two is that believers will fight for their cause. This forms the basis for real power (From author).

The influence of religion is such that power, order and government perceive their effects as a stabilizer on society as well as the legitimation of their rule. Depending on the history, the state depends on a society that is moral, consistent and trusting in their institutions.  As decision makers, real power ensures that their decisions will be both supported and followed by society. From the very beginning of society, religious institutions fought for “believers-parishioners.” As a result, politics borrows from religion in that it is a secularization of bureaucratic competencies formally entrusted to an absolute ruler ‘personally’ chosen by a supreme being and counseled by his representative on earth – embodied as the senior religious leader.  Sometimes this symbiotic relationship is equal, sometimes dependent upon the other but always it is both visual and implied.  What both understand is that power is expressed in numbers which is something they both need. 

Ioannis Galatas
(RIEAS Senior Advisor  & former head of Department of Assymetric Threats at the Joint Military Intelligence Division of Hellenic National Defense General Staff)

Copyright: Science Codex online

Ioannis Galatas suggests that the 2012 Olympic Games to be held in London in July and August represent a potential terrorist threat as the successor to the late Osama bin Laden and a medical doctor himself, struggles to regain "face" amongst extremists opposing the West..... Read more

Daniel Little
(RIEAS Senior Advisor)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Time and repetition conditions consumers of news and other media to believe that the U.S. military presence was always intent to move into places like Iraq and Afghanistan.  For those twenty or younger, this is all they have known.  For those that are older, the idea that the Cold War’s end would facilitate the expansion of the U.S., not to mention NATO to such places was never assumed.  Rather than re-engage issues such as access to energy, denial of safe havens to terrorists, human rights or even international development, the notion of ‘self-preservation’ in one’s own national interest has not been as thorough of late as we would like to believe.   To be sure, the U.S. military has a plan for everything....  Read more

Keshav Mazumdar
(Certified Master Antiterrorism Specialist & RIEAS Member of International Advisory Board)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

In the case of classical intelligence methods and indications-and-warning intelligence, knowledge of enemy capabilities was the focal point of interest at the tactical level, while knowledge of the enemy’s intentions was paramount at the strategic level. Based on the need of the information intelligence requirements, order of battle intelligence and indications as well as warning indications and criteria were developed. But as regards to counterterrorism, this is not entirely applicable. Here we are interested in early determination of both the intention and capabilities of the terrorist group. Hence the skillful adaptation instead of adoption of classical intelligence methodology and indications and warning intelligence is the required need.    

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