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Ilias Papadopoulos
(Security Analyst, DefenceGreece.com)

Copyright: www.DefenceGreece.com


The Strategic “Orthodoxy”-Clausewitzian Thought

In order to make any conclusions in the essence of war, we must start from the basics, which are Prussian military scholar Carl von Clausewitz. According to him the essence of war comprises from three ingredients, each of which is present in every confrontation, but in different doses.  Those ingredients are i) hatred/violence, ii) chance, and iii) subjugation of the military to political goals. Each of these facets of war corresponds to a particular element of the society that fights. Hatred mainly regards the wider civilian population of the country at war, and its will to continue the fight. Chance regards the country’s military forces, where a small shift of luck can mean the difference between victory and defeat, eg a rainfall that cancels a breakthrough to the enemy lines. Political domination exclusively regards the country’s political elite.....  Read more  

Brian Merchant
(Freelancer, focuses his research on political analysis, he contributes articles to the TreeHugger.com, and the Huffington Post)

What’s the number one reason we riot? The plausible, justifiable motivations of trampled-upon humanfolk to fight back are many—poverty, oppression, disenfranchisement, etc—but the big one is more primal than any of the above. It’s hunger, plain and simple. If there’s a single factor that reliably sparks social unrest, it’s food becoming too scarce or too expensive. So argues a group of complex systems theorists in Cambridge, and it makes sense.....  Read more

Zhyldyz Oskonbaeva
(RIEAS Senior Advisor & Eurasian Liaison)

Copyrights: www.rieas.gr


The more followers you have, the stronger is their belief in you. The more believers you have, the greater your chances of getting elected. With both you can rule the nation. The difference between the two is that believers will fight for their cause. This forms the basis for real power (From author).

The influence of religion is such that power, order and government perceive their effects as a stabilizer on society as well as the legitimation of their rule. Depending on the history, the state depends on a society that is moral, consistent and trusting in their institutions.  As decision makers, real power ensures that their decisions will be both supported and followed by society. From the very beginning of society, religious institutions fought for “believers-parishioners.” As a result, politics borrows from religion in that it is a secularization of bureaucratic competencies formally entrusted to an absolute ruler ‘personally’ chosen by a supreme being and counseled by his representative on earth – embodied as the senior religious leader.  Sometimes this symbiotic relationship is equal, sometimes dependent upon the other but always it is both visual and implied.  What both understand is that power is expressed in numbers which is something they both need. 

Ioannis Galatas
(RIEAS Senior Advisor  & former head of Department of Assymetric Threats at the Joint Military Intelligence Division of Hellenic National Defense General Staff)

Copyright: Science Codex online

Ioannis Galatas suggests that the 2012 Olympic Games to be held in London in July and August represent a potential terrorist threat as the successor to the late Osama bin Laden and a medical doctor himself, struggles to regain "face" amongst extremists opposing the West..... Read more

Daniel Little
(RIEAS Senior Advisor)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Time and repetition conditions consumers of news and other media to believe that the U.S. military presence was always intent to move into places like Iraq and Afghanistan.  For those twenty or younger, this is all they have known.  For those that are older, the idea that the Cold War’s end would facilitate the expansion of the U.S., not to mention NATO to such places was never assumed.  Rather than re-engage issues such as access to energy, denial of safe havens to terrorists, human rights or even international development, the notion of ‘self-preservation’ in one’s own national interest has not been as thorough of late as we would like to believe.   To be sure, the U.S. military has a plan for everything....  Read more

Keshav Mazumdar
(Certified Master Antiterrorism Specialist & RIEAS Member of International Advisory Board)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

In the case of classical intelligence methods and indications-and-warning intelligence, knowledge of enemy capabilities was the focal point of interest at the tactical level, while knowledge of the enemy’s intentions was paramount at the strategic level. Based on the need of the information intelligence requirements, order of battle intelligence and indications as well as warning indications and criteria were developed. But as regards to counterterrorism, this is not entirely applicable. Here we are interested in early determination of both the intention and capabilities of the terrorist group. Hence the skillful adaptation instead of adoption of classical intelligence methodology and indications and warning intelligence is the required need.    

Dr. Panayotis A. Yannakogeorgos
(Cyber defense analyst at the Air Force Research Institute)

Note: The views expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Air University or U.S. Air Force Research Institute.

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Throughout its history, airpower has remained a cornerstone of the NATO Alliance and will remain so well into the future. The geostrategic environment NATO will face in the 21st century is certain to bring new threats and opportunities that diverge significantly from those it faced in the 20th century. What is needed is a common framework within which partners can tackle emerging threats. One such area is in responding to cyber threats. In order to be ready for any future, Airmen across the Alliance must adapt their understanding of cyberpower to conform to the needs of the evolving technological trends and their influence on the global security environment to ensure that our Alliance and our individual nations continue to enjoy the benefits of freedom and security. Doing this in a time of constrained resources and gaps in political will be challenging. .....  Read more

Alojz Šteiner
(Major General, General Staff of the Slovenian Armed Forces) 

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Abstract

The Alliance has entered the second decade of the third millennium with a New Strategic Concept, which is to respond to new-domain challenges. In this respect, the NATO’s Strategic Concept could also be called a »cyber concept«, owing to the age we are about to enter. It could also be considered transformational with regard to the second transformational decade. The need for reform and further transformation is clearly emphasized, with the economic crisis as a special factor. Transformational changes have, of course, not been conceived as the changes for the poor. The implementation of novelties requires resources and it is mainly the latter that enable the introduction of new technologies and solutions. We therefore claim that transformation represents a challenge for everybody, but is also attainable for everybody. All this also reflects at a national level, although very often in different forms. Both views are very much relevant with regard to the preparations for NATO Summit in Chicago this year. The article presents certain transformational challenges of the Alliance and their influence on national defence and military sphere. In this respect, the reflections about further development of Slovenian defence and military system focus on the answers to transformational challenges. The central message of the reflections contained in the paper intends to clarify the needs and opportunities for changes. This is also one of the prerequisites for a successful implementation of transformational challenges.......  Read more

(The McFB – Was Ist Das?)

Anis H. Bajrektarevic,
(Professor, Chairman Intl Law & Global Political Studies, University of Applied Sciences IMC-Krems, Austria, and RIEAS Member of International Advisory Board)

* First published by the US Journal of Foreign Relations (January 2012)

Copyright: Annis H. Bajrektarevic on line


Ever since, years ago, I coined the expression “McFB way of life” and particularly since my intriguing FB articles (Is there life after Facebook I and II) have been published, I was confronted with numerous requests to clarify the meaning. My usual answer was a contra-question: If humans hardly ever question fetishisation or oppose the (self-) trivialization, why then is the subsequent brutalization a surprise to them?

Not pretending to reveal a coherent theory, the following lines are my instructive findings, most of all on the issue why it is time to go home and search for a silence. 

Largely drawing on the works of the grand philosophers of the German Classicism and Dialectic Materialism, it was sociologist Max Weber who was the first – among modern age thinkers – to note that the industrialized world is undergoing a rapid process of rationalization of its state (and other vital societal) institutions. This process – Weber points out – is charac-terized by an increased efficiency, predictability, calculability, and control over any ‘threat’ of uncertainty. Hereby, the uncertainty should be understood in relation to the historically unstable precognitive and cognitive human, individual and group, dynamics. A disheartened, cold and calculative over-rationalization might lead to obscurity of irrationality, Weber warns. His famous metaphor of the iron cage or irrationality of rationality refers to his concern that extremely rationalized (public) institution inevitably alienates itself and turns dehumanized to both those who staff them and those they serve, with a tiny upper caste of controllers steadily losing touch of reality. ....   Read more

BG (ret’d) Ioannis (John) Galatas, MD, MA (Terr), MC (Army)
(RIEAS-CBRN Scientific Coordinator & Editor, CBRNE-Terrorism Newsletter)

BG (ret’d) Ioannis (John) Galatas participated in a workshop on Urban Crisis: Emergency Lessons, Response, Training and Technologies for the Digital Age, and delivered a lecture on “Two Olympiads Eight Years Apart (Athens 2004- London 2012) in the Serious Games Institute, University of Coventry, London Campus, (Nov 17, 2011). ....  Read more

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