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Daniel Little
(RIEAS Senior Advisor)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

In order to understand the world around us, we create storylines, even metaphors to explain what is occurring around us.  With the unrest in Syria, the threat posed by a nuclear Iran, even terrorism against Israel is part of a larger story that continues to unfold in front of us.  I contend that the story we thought we knew is different than what is emerging.  Part of its origin dates far back in history. While the historical schism between Sunni and Shia has its roots in 10 October, 680,1the iteration now developing is unique with the implications leading towards World War if left unchecked.  To be clear, this is not to say that World War is inevitable.  Instead it is a precise sequencing of events that makes this a possibility if not examined and anticipated in advance.  Such fractious reactions and consequences are not without precedence in history.  Had an Austrian Archduke not boarded a carriage in Sarajevo in 1914, there might still be monarchies in Germany and Russia not to mention an empire in Istanbul. Like the effect of Versailles on the world politics that followed, the sequencing of dramatic actions can cause ripple effects that emanate for generations......  Read more

By Joseph Lerner
(Senior Analyst)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

For the past three years the reports, analyses, studies and scholarly works in the international community have been increasingly focusing on the Iranians’ nuclear program. The international community, rightfully so, especially the NATO nations and Israelis are gravely concerned about the Iranians’ ability to build nuclear warhead within months. One doesn't need to cite other scholarly works or reports when discussing these issues, since these are common knowledge amongst those who are involved in studying and analysing the geopolitics of the Middle East, Iran and the Iranians’ nuclear program.

Alexis Giannoulis
(RIEAS Associate and Independent Research Analyst)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr


Strategic decisions such as preventive and preemptive strikes are usually based on drivers, some directly others indirectly linked to the main objective. Since 2002 and the discovery of the Natanz secret nuclear facility some 200 km from Tehran (1), Israel and the West have been trying to put an end to the country’s nuclear programme which, Tehran has always claimed it is aimed at solely peaceful, i.e energy related objectives.

Anis H. Bajrektarevic
(Geopolitics of Energy Editorial Member, Chairperson for Intl. Law & Global Pol. Studies,  University of Applied Sciences IMC–Krems, Austria)

Copyright: Anis H. Bajrektarevic on line

For the disciplinary scholars of geoeconomics and for the geopolitics chessboard practitioners, the current events in (and around) the Arab countries are particularly instructive. ...  Read more

Vassilios Damiras
(Counterterrorism and Defense Analyst, USA)

Copyright: www.rieas.gr

Greece and Israel's rich and complicated histories and cultures have seen them associated with all the crucial historical developments in the eastern Mediterranean, Balkan and Middle East regions. The Jewish Zionist movement that was created in the late 19th century by Theodore Herzl had very similar characteristics to the Greek irredentist movement of the “Great Idea.” Both nations have triumphed as Diaspora. Both ethnic groups have been occupied by the Ottomans yet still managed to influence the economy of the Ottoman Empire. Both countries are Western-style democracies, allied to the United States and located within a crucial geostrategic region.

By Joseph Lerner
(Political and Intelligence Analyst)

Copyright:
www.rieas.gr

The Arab Spring as a political phenomenon has given rise to various populist uprisings against the tyrannical regimes such as Egypt’s Revolution and Libya’s revolt. Few years ago, the Libyan people couldn’t even imagine capturing Tripoli and arresting two of Gadhafi’s sons. Who thought that one day Hosni Mubarak ally of the US to be put on trial in Cairo? It is true that the Arab Spring was inspired and started by the Tunisian populist uprising, but each case such as Egypt, Libya, Bahrain and Syria’s populist uprising has a different and unique nature. 

One of the most unique movements in the Middle East is the Syrian populist uprising. Syria, due to its geostrategic position, history and political culture has been always attracting various regional and international power players as a country to politically and economically invest in. The US, France, Germany, Turkey, Iran, Russia, China and other countries have been aware of the sensitivity and complexity of the issues when it comes to Syria, and the Syrian people’s aspiration for democracy and freedom. For this reason Syria has become the country where various parties such as Iran and Turkey are flexing their political and diplomatic mussels to gain leverage to influence Syria’s future.

Dr Barah Mikail
(Senior Researcher, Middle East and North Africa, FRIDE Think Tank, Spain) 

Copyright: 
www.rieas.gr

As events have unfolded across the MENA region over the last six months, violence in Syria has reached unbearable degrees. Bachar al-Assad’s regime has managed to crush anti-government demonstrations despite criticism and sanctions adopted by the “international community”. The more criticism has been forthcoming, the more the Syrian government has propagated the foreign conspiracy by-line. Indeed, the regional environment is sensitive enough to have anyone refrain from reiterating the Libyan experience.

Ioannis Chapsos
(Commander, Hellenic Navy (PhD Cand), Hellenic Supreme Joint War College Instructor, Global Security specialist)

Copyright:
www.rieas.gr

The new wars

After the end of the ‘Cold War’ we experienced a metamorphosis of the traditional conflicts per se. Interstate conflicts tend to eclipse and a new form of long lasting intrastate violence has emerged . The only interstate conflict waged in the last decade was the one between Russia and Georgia and it didn’t last for more than a week . Read more

Dr. Shlomo Shpiro
(Deputy chairman of the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University, senior research associate at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, and chairman of the International Intelligence History Association (IIHA).

Copyright: http://www.biu.ac.il/Besa/

Note: BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 134, March 23, 2011


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: While Western powers have stepped in to enforce the UN Security Council's 'no fly zone' over Libya, depriving Muammar Gaddafi of his air power alone will not ensure victory for the insurgents on the ground. Covert action, conducted by intelligence operatives, can clandestinely provide the rebels with the funds, arms, communication equipment and intelligence information crucial for their success, without the need for Western forces to intervene on the ground. Such a strategy can also help unite the insurgents in order to create a unified military response to Gaddafi's army.

Μάνου Ηλιάδη
(Δημοσιογράφος)

Copyright: Κόσμο του Επενδυτή

Οι μυστικές υπηρεσίες των τριών γειτονικών κρατών φέρονται να προωθούν κοινές επιχειρήσεις δολοφονίας επιφανών Κούρδων, και μάλιστα στην καρδιά της Ευρώπης, στις Βρυξέλλες

Πληροφορίες από άκρως αξιόπιστες κουρδικές πηγές, που αναφέρονται σε συγκεκριμένη κοινή επιχείρηση των τουρκικών, ιρανικών και συριακών μυστικών υπηρεσιών εναντίον στελεχών των Κούρδων στις Βρυξέλλες, αποκαλύπτουν μία ιδιαίτερα ενδιαφέρουσα διάσταση των σχέσεων της Τουρκίας με τις χώρες αυτές, και κυρίως με το Ιράν.

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